Did you ever notice that your neighborhood is “safe” and crime occurs elsewhere?

The media reinforces that notion when they show the crime and violence in other places, like what is going on in Mexico. Would you consider canceling a trip to Tucson (pop. 1,014,000) or Phoenix (pop. 1,636,000) because of the violence in those cities? From January 2007 through third quarter 2009, there were 640 (24.2 / 100,000) homicides in those cities compared to Rosarito Beach (pop. 106,000), Ensenada (pop. 460,000), Mexicali (pop. 855,000), San Felipe (pop. 20,000), Tecate (pop. 125,000) and Puerto Peñasco (Rocky Point)(pop. 40,000) only had 42 (1.2/100,000) homicides during the same period. These cities attract the largest tourist participation from the U.S. (excluding Tijuana) in northwestern Sonora. San Carlos (pop. 4,500), the major destination of Desert Divers, had none during that same period. Reporting the murders in the border towns between U.S. and Mexico where drug cartel members are killing each other, Mexican police officers, and the border patrol thus making blanket inferences about Mexico is like reporting the violence in L.A. and inferring that it applies to all of the U.S.

As the Scuba diving, snorkeling, fishing, and just relaxing on the beach season approaches it is important that we all really look at the numbers as it pertains to how safe travel into Sonora, Mexico and particularly San Carlos and Rocky Point really is. When you do the math Mexico is definitely as safe a place to visit as it has always been for tourists. If you are a prudent international traveler you will definitely find your trip to be safe and fun. Come join us for another summer of fun and adventure in San Carlos!

Homicides since January 2007 to end of third quarter 2009
U.S.	Population (Millions)	Homicides	Homicides /105 population
Tucson	1.014	150	14.8
Phoenix	1.636	491	30.0
Total	2.650	641	24.2
Mexico
Rosarito Beach	0.106
Ensenada	0.460
Mexicali	0.855
San Felipe	0.020
Tecate	0.125
Puerto Penasco	0.040
Total	1.606	42	2.6

From this site MexInvest Now
By Charles Simpson

Mexico is in a unique position to reap many of the benefits of the decline of the US economy.

In order to not violate NAFTA and other agreements the U.S.A. cannot use direct protectionism, so it is content to allow the media to play this protectionist role.

The U.S. media – over the last year – has portrayed Mexico as being on the brink of economic collapse and civil war. The Mexican people are either beheaded, kidnapped, poor, corrupt, or narco-traffickers. The American news media was particularly aggressive in the weeks leading up to spring break. The main reason for this is money. During that two-week period, over 120,000 young American citizens poured into Mexico and left behind hundreds of millions of dollars.

Let’s look at the reality of the massive drug and corruption problem, kidnappings, murders and money. The U.S. Secretary of State Clinton was clear in her honest assessment of the problem. “Our insatiable demand for illegal drugs fuels the drug trade. Our inability to prevent the weapons from being illegally smuggled across the border to arm these criminals causes the deaths of police officers, soldiers and civilians,” Clinton said. The other large illegal business that is smuggled into the U.S.A. that no one likes to talk about is Human Traffic for prostitution. This “business” is globally now competing with drugs in terms of profits. It is critical to understand, however that the horrific violence in Mexico is over 95% confined to the three transshipping cities for these two businesses, Tijuana, Nogales, and Juarez. The Mexican government is so serious about fighting this, that they have committed over 30,000 soldiers to these borders towns. There was a thoughtful article written by a professor at the University of Juarez. He was reminded of the Prohibition years in the U.S.A. and compared Juarez to Chicago when Al Capone was conducting his reign of terror capped off with The Saint Valentine’s Day Massacre. During these years, just like Juarez today, 99% of the citizens went about their daily lives and attended classes, went to the movies, restaurants, and parks.

Is there corruption in Mexico? YES !!! Is there an equal amount of corruption related to this business in the U.S.A.? YES !!!. When you have a pair of illegal businesses that generate over $300,000,000,000 in sales you will find massive corruption. Make no mistake about the Mexican Drug Cartel; these “businessmen” are 100 times more sophisticated than the bumbling bootleggers during Prohibition. They form profitable alliances all over the U.S.A. They do cost benefit analysis of their business much better than the US automobile industry. They have found over the years that the cost of bribing U.S. and Mexican Border Guards and the transportation costs of moving marijuana from Sinaloa to California have cut significantly into profits. That is why over the past 5-7 years they have been growing marijuana in State and Federal Parks and BLM land all across America. From a business standpoint, this is a tremendous cost savings on several levels. Let’s look at California as an example as one of the largest consumers. When you have $14.2 billion of Marijuana grown and consumed in one state, there is savings on transportation, less loss of product due to confiscation and an overall reduction cost of bribery with law enforcement and parks service people. Another great savings is the benefit to their employees. The penalties in Mexico for growing range from 5-15 years. The penalties in California, on average are 18 months, and out in 8 months. The same economic principles are now being applied to the methamphetamine factories.

FOX News continues to scare people with its focus on kidnapping. There are kidnappings in Mexico. The concentration of kidnappings has been in Mexico City, among the very rich and the three aforementioned border Cities. With the exception of Mexico City, the number one city for kidnappings among NAFTA countries is Phoenix, Arizona with over 359 in 2008. The Phoenix Police estimate that twice that number of kidnappings goes unreported, because like Mexico 99% of these crimes were directly related to drug and human traffic. Phoenix, unfortunately, is geographically profitable transshipping location. Mexicans, just like 99% of U.S. Citizens during prohibition, go about their daily lives all over the country. They get up, go to school or work and live their lives untouched by the border town violence.

These same protectionist news sources have misled the public as to the real danger from the swine flu in Mexico and temporary devastated the tourism business. As of May 27 2009, there have been 87 deaths in Mexico from the swine flu. During those same five months there have been 36 murdered school children in Chicago. The “news sources” in the USA have a lack of integrity. By their logic, if 87 deaths from the swine flu in Mexico warrants canceling flights and cruise ships to Mexico, then close all roads and highways in the USA because of record 43,359 automobile related deaths in the USA in 2008.

What is just getting underway is what many are calling the “Largest southern migration to Mexico of people and real estate assets since the Civil War” A significant percentage of the Baby Boomers have been doing the research and are making the life changing decision to move out of the U.S.A. The number one retirement destination in the world is Mexico. There are already over 2,000,000 US and Canadian property owners in Mexico. The most conservative number of American and Canadian Baby Boomers who are on their way to owning property in Mexico for full or part time living in the next 15 years is over 6,000,000. Do the math on 6,000,000 people buying a $300,000 house or condo and you will understand why the U.S. Government is trying to tax this massive shift of money to Mexico through H.R. 3056. The U.S. government calls this “The Tax Collection Responsibility Act of 2007”. Those who will have to pay it are calling this the EXIT TAX.

Mexico: A better economic choice than China
Another large exodus from the U.S.A is high paying skilled jobs. The job shift in automobile sector, both car and parts manufacturing, is already known by most investors. In the last few months as John Deere and Caterpillar have been laying off thousands of workers in the U.S.A., and hiring equal numbers in Mexico. The most recent industry that is making the shift is the aerospace manufacturers. In the city of Zacatecas there is currently a $210 million aerospace facility being built. With the 11 U.S. companies moving there, it is estimated to provide over 200,000 new high paying jobs in the coming years. One of the main factors for the shift in job south to Mexico instead of China is realistic analysis of total production, labor and delivery costs. While the labor costs in China are 40% less on average, the overall transportation costs and inherent risks of a long distance supply chain, and quality control issues, gives Mexico a distinct financial advantage.

Mexico’s real economic future
Mexico has avoided completely the subprime problem that has devastated the U.S. banking industry. The Mexican banks are healthy and profitable. Mexico has a growing and very healthy middle and upper middle class. The very recent introduction of residential financing has Mexico in a unique position of having over 90% of current homeowners owning their house outright. U.S. banks are competing for the Mexican, Canadian and American cross border loan business. It is and will continue to be a very safe and very profitable business. These same banks that were loaning in a reckless manner have learned their lesson and are loaning here the old fashioned way. They require a minimum of a 680 credit score, 30% down payment, and verifiable income that can support the loan. In most areas of Mexico where Baby Boomers are moving to, with the exception of Puerto Penasco (which did not have a national and international base of buyers), there is no real estate bubble. The higher end markets ($2-20 million) in many of these destinations are going through a modest correction. The Baby Boomers market here is between $200,000 and $600,000. With the continuing demand inside the Bay of Banderas, that price point, in the coming years, will disappear. This is the reason the Mexican government is spending billions of dollars on more infrastructure north along the coast all the way up to Mazatlan.The other major area where America has become overpriced is in the field of health care. This massive shift of revenues is estimated to add 5-7% to Mexico’s GDP. The name for this “business” is Medical Tourism. The two biggest competitors for Mexico were Thailand and India. Thailand and India’s biggest drawback is geography. Also recent events, Thailand’s inability to keep a government in place and the recent terrorist attack in Mumbai, have helped Mexico capture close to half of this growth industry. In Mexico today there are over 56 world class hospitals being built to keep up with this business.Mexico is currently sitting on a cash surplus and an almost balanced budget. Most Americans have never heard of Carlos Slim until he loaned the New York Times $250 million. After that it became clear to many investors around the world what Mexicans already knew: that Mexico had been able to avoid the worst of the U.S. economic devastation. Mexico’s resilience is to be admired. When the U.S. Federal Reserve granted a $30 billion loan to each of the following countries Mexico, Singapore, South Korea, and Brazil, Mexico reinvested the money in Treasury bonds in an account in New York City.According to oil traders, Mexico’s Pemex wisely as the price of oil shot to $147 a barrel put in place an investment strategy that hinged on oil trading in the range of $38-$60 a barrel. Since the beginning of 2009 Mexico has been collecting revenues on hedged positions that give them $90-$110 per barrel today. Mexico’s recent and under reported oil discovery in the Palaeo Channels of Chicontepec has placed it third in the world for oil reserves, right behind Canada and Saudi Arabia.The following is a quote from Rosalind Wilson, President of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce on March 19, 2009. “The strength of the Mexican economic system makes the country a favorite destination for Canadian investment”.

July 2008 Edition

Is Mexico safer than America? In this edition of Mexico Living we look beyond the headlines for the truth.

Every page is filled with the information you need to live, vacation, work or play in Northwest Mexico, with sections on Rosarito Beach & Ensenada, San Felipe and Puerto Penasco (Rocky Point).

IS MEXICO SAFER THAN AMERICA?
It was among the most brutal homicides in recent memory. On a sunny Sunday afternoon last fall, two men jumped out of an SUV and set Marcial Sanchez on fire. The 52-year-old factory worker was engulfed in flames and burned over 70% of his body. He died hours later at a hospital. No one who saw Sanchez’s killing reported it to police. [1]

If you were to read this, would you think twice about planning a vacation to that city? Unfortunately, these are the stories filling the pages of newspapers across America.

It isn’t just in major cities in the U.S. that recent spates of violence, often attributed to teens and young adults, have sparked concern. A top official has warned parents to find out whether their children are carrying knives, after attacks killed 14 teens so far this year, including an 18-year-old actor. There have been at least 28 teen murders throughout the country in 2008.

Does this sound like a country you would want to take your teenagers to or a place you let them go for Spring Break? Probably not. But what if you knew the first headline refers to an event in East Los Angeles and the second, to a trend in England?

Of course, anyone planning a vacation or contemplating a move weighs many factors when deciding where to go. Travelers want to feel safe. How can anyone really know whether they will be safe in another city or country?

Take the example of Mexico. There have been many sensational headlines published about the murders and kidnappings in Tijuana. It is true that there are drug cartels in Mexico, known police corruption, and a great deal of violence surrounding the drug trade. However, confrontations tend to occur outside of resort and tourist areas; even in places close to Tijuana such as Rosarito, very rarely experience violent crime. Many Mexicans, as well as Americans living in Mexico, believe that the reports of violence are over-stated, causing more fear among potential travelers than is necessary.

“The recent media trend seems to be to link any crime or police action to the entire country, which is similar to having an incident in Los Angeles reflect on the entire United States,” says Ron Raposa, the international public relations representative for Rosarito Beach. He adds, “The coverage varies some from media outlet to media outlet. But in general, the U.S. media in recent months has presented coverage of Baja California and Mexico that lacks perspective, balance and sometimes accuracy.”

IS MEXICO SAFER THAN USA?
The U.S. State Department put out a warning about the violence in Mexico. The report states that 128 Americans were killed in Mexico between January 2005 and December 2007.

Looking more closely at the data, Rosarito Beach, Ensenada, Mexicali, San Felipe, Tecate and Puerto Peñasco (Rocky Point) only had 42 homicides in the last three years combined. Those are the largest tourist areas of Northwest Mexico, excluding Tijuana. In Los Angeles County, there have been 103 murders in the last six months. In 2007, there were 324 homicides in L.A. County. People in Los Angeles would probably say that there are certain unsafe areas to avoid. People living in Mexico would say the same thing.

More detailed statistics indicate that he murder rate per 100,000 people in Mexico is about 13. Recent FBI statistics show the murder rate in Baltimore is 43.3, Washington DC is 29.1, and Detroit is 47.3. Surprisingly, the murder rate per 100,000 in New York is now 6.1 as crime diminished significantly during the administrations of New York Mayors Rudolph Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg.

The Mexican government, federal and local, looks at crime and the drug trade seriously, and is taking major steps to stop violence and end corruption. President Felipe Calderon has sent federal troops to help local and state police crack down on crime and the drug cartels. Part of the problem is police corruption, which Calderon has addressed head on. Last year, all of the police officers in Tijuana had their guns tested and federal troops patrolled the city. After weapon testing and other screenings, such as lie detector tests, the better police officers returned to their jobs. The same type of screenings occurred in Rosarito.

In recent months, in Sonora, Mexico, two reporters were abducted and killed because of investigations into the cartel. On the day of the second abduction, the federal authorities arrested 100 policemen suspected of corruption and working with organized crime.

Bad press is having a negative impact on SCORE, Baja’s staple off-road racing series. Sal Fish of SCORE International has been shopping for Mexico races in the state of Sonora and Sonora is pulling out all the stops to have off-road racing in its state. Baja California racing is seriously on the ropes, with racers bailing on the SCORE series and ever-increasing public reports of organized crime in Baja California, Mexico.

Raposa explained, ‘Baja has brought some of the problems on itself. Police extortion of motorists in some areas went uncorrected for far too long. Corrupt and corrupting criminal cartels wielded pervasive influence along the drug routes leading into the United States. But, now Mexican federal, state and city governments have joined together in a serious effort to end that. This has led to shootouts that, while not affecting visitors, U.S. media often links to tourist safety. They are separate issues.”

Rosarito Beach has done much to make tourists safe. Raposa describes the first step in Mayor Hugo Torres attempt to create a clean police force. After extensive screening Rosarito has replaced 40 of its 150-member police force and has also created a special tourist police force. Twenty of its best officers are assigned to patrol tourist areas, offering both protection and assistance. An ombudsman office and tourist assistance office have been created. In addition, 300 residents have volunteered for a citizen-watch program in tourist areas, Raposa says.

Raposa has spent a lot of time in Rosarito, which he recommends as a vacation destination. He says, “I have been visiting here for 30 years and lived here full-time for three, all crime-free. I would say it is comparable to any major tourist area in the U.S. in regards to the safety (of) visitors.”

He adds, “Use common sense and be alert as you would in any area with which you were unfamiliar. Avoid situations and areas that seem to present increased risk. Both the state and Rosarito tourism offices have websites with extensive safety tips and other valuable information.”

Tourism in Baja during Spring Break may have decreased somewhat this year, but it seems to be improving. Says Raposa, “There has been a gradual rebound as people realize that Rosarito is not a dangerous place to visit.” The main affected cities of Rosarito, Tijuana and Ensenada are working together on tourism and safety.

On the other side of Baja, San Felipe is trying to deal successfully with the reports of violence affecting tourism. Mayor Hazael Sierra says, “I believe the bad image has been the cause of many tourists not coming to visit us, but when they do, they go home with a really good impression.” The Mayor says his city is working on, “Cleanliness, security, and organization of local events.” He adds, “I believe that there is still a lot to do, but we are beginning and I believe that this is all going to get better.”

Traveling South of the border is no different than visiting other foreign destinations and tourists rarely encounter dangers if they follow the law in Mexico.

Travelers to Baja needing help or advice are encouraged to take advantage of the assistance available. Dialing 078 from any phone in Mexico will immediately connect the caller with the Department of Tourism toll-free. You can also visit the website for more information at: http://www.discoverbajacalifornia.com

[1] Quote from Los Angeles Times, March 17, 2008 on LA Gang Violence.

Question: Is It Safe to Travel to Mexico?

Answer: It depends, in part, on your destination.

In light of escalating drug-related crime in Mexico’s big border cities, safety is a valid concern.

In October 2008, the U.S. State Department issued a travel alert for citizens traveling to Mexico, renewing its previously-issued travel safety alert. According to the State Department, drug cartels are battling each other for control of the drug trade and simultanously fighting government attempts to crack down on their activities. The result has been an increase in violent crime in parts of northern Mexico.

While foreign tourists aren’t typically targeted, they occasionally find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Complicating the issue is the lack of news information coming from the affected areas; the cartels have begun to target Mexican journalists who report on drug-related murders, so some media outlets are not reporting on this issue. Unfortunately, the reports that do trickle back indicate that kidnappings, murders, robberies and other violent crimes are on the rise in border areas, particularly in the cities of Tijuana, Nogales and Ciudad Juarez. U.S. news sources, such as the Los Angeles Times, report ongoing violence, including armed robberies and exchanges of gunfire.

The State Department strongly encourages U.S. citizens to “be alert to safety and security concerns when visiting the border region” and to monitor local news reports while traveling.

However, Mexico is a very large country, and there are many areas that are safe to visit. According to Suzanne Barbezat, About.com’s Guide to Mexico Travel, “Most people who travel to Mexico have a wonderful time and don’t encounter any problems.”

In most parts of Mexico, tourists need only exercise the caution that they would in any vacation spot – pay attention to surroundings, wear a money belt, avoid dark and deserted areas – to avoid becoming crime victims.

Mexico has much to offer as a vacation destination, including good value, a rich cultural heritage and stunning scenery. If you are concerned about the safety situation, avoid border cities, particularly Ciudad Juarez and Tijuana, plan an itinerary that skips known trouble spots, check the latest travel warnings and be alert to your surroundings during your trip.